ADM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: ADM could benefit from improved commodity demand and potential growth in its ethanol and natural food segments, supported by current low implied volatility and favorable term structure indicating lower risk perceptions.


Bearish Case: Recent volatility in earnings and ongoing investigations may lead to further declines in signal strength, compounded by a challenging macroeconomic environment and the negligible price movement expectations reflected in the options chain.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings surprise boosting stock: 40%.

2. Continuing investigation impacts and further stock decline: 35%.

3. Stabilization in commodity prices leading to recovery: 25%.


Trading Oracle: Deploy a bullish debit spread using ADM 63C/65C with August expiration, capitalizing on low implied volatility and higher potential returns. This strategy offers a strong risk-reward profile, leveraging recent price stability and market sentiment for robust profits.


July 25, 2024


Archer Daniels Midland Forecast

ADM      Archer Daniels Midland











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ADM



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.62)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.1)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ADM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.1)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.62)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.64)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.66)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ADM



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.62)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.1)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.64)





Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with ADM


 Ask any question about ADM!