AEP Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AEP's mean-reverting price behavior, stable dividends, and strong institutional support suggest potential for price stabilization and modest gains.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and regulatory challenges may lead to continued downward pressure on AEP's stock, reflecting persistent overvaluation concerns.




Potential Outcomes: AEP may experience sideways trading with a 55% likelihood due to mean reversion; a price decline due to volatility and regulation has a 30% chance, while a slight recovery holds 15% probability.




Trading Oracle: Execute a bear call spread by selling the $105 call and buying the $110 call, targeting the June expiration. This captures premium with defined risk, leveraging high volatility, mean reversion tendencies, and regulatory pressures.



February 18, 2025


American Electric Power Forecast

AEP        American Electric Power











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