OMF Forecast


Bullish Case: OMF has a historically strong dividend yield and institutional interest. Stable implied volatilities suggest limited downside risk. Helium's forecast volatility is lower, indicating market uncertainty is potentially overblown. Positive historical correlations further support this stance.


Bearish Case: Credit risks and economic headwinds persist, potentially impacting earnings and triggering volatility. Recent price stagnation and low implied volatilities may underestimate looming risks. Helium implied volatility is lower than market, suggesting market underestimation of potential risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Growth via Foursight integration and auto lending expansion (60%);

2. Increased delinquencies impacting earnings (25%);

3. Flat performance due to stable term structures (15%). Historical performance indicates higher likelihood of moderate returns.


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July 11, 2024


OneMain Forecast

OMF      OneMain











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OMF



IAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Regional Banks (0.93)


FITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FITB  Fifth Third Bancorp (0.93)


PNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNC  PNC Financial Services (0.93)


NTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTRS  Northern (0.92)


CFG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CFG  Citizens Financial (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OMF



EH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EH  EHang Holdings Ltd - (0.0)


SPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPT  Sprout Social (0.01)


TEAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEAM  Atlassian (0.01)


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (0.01)


HZO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HZO  Marinemax (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OMF



SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.82)


DOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOG  ProShares Short Dow30 (-0.83)


DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.83)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.84)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)





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