BABA Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bullish Case: Alibaba's reduced AI service prices could boost demand, while their cloud and international commerce business grows. Analysts’ positive outlook and recent share repurchase program provide additional support.

Bearish Case: US tariffs on Chinese imports, intense competition, and market skepticism threaten Alibaba’s profitability, compounded by the high implied volatility suggesting significant uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful cloud and AI expansion (60%);

2. Regulatory and geopolitical headwinds (25%);

3. Continued competitive pressure (15%).

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May 22, 2024

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