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BABA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Alibaba's global expansion, focus on AI innovation, and strategic partnerships bolster its potential for substantial growth. Continued support from share buybacks and dividend policies strengthens investor confidence, positioning BABA favorably in a recovering market.

Bearish Case: Ongoing regulatory pressures, competition from other e-commerce giants, and geopolitical tensions could severely limit Alibaba's expansion plans, threatening revenue growth and market share. High implied volatility suggests potential instability, increasing downside risks.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance of successful AI and international expansion boosting growth.

2) 30% chance of regulatory and competition challenges impacting performance.

3) 20% chance of continued geopolitical tensions.

4) 10% chance of unexpected market recovery sparking a rally.

March 13, 2025

Alibaba Forecast

BABA Alibaba

Price Forecast
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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BABA

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AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.8)

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