Bullish Case: AGIO shows potential for recovery due to positive anticipation in ongoing trials and past mean-reversion tendencies HeliumHelium.

Bearish Case: High volatility and recent price drops suggest potential downside, with past disappointments and safety warnings adding to risks Endpoints 

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Agios' stock drops after disclosing new liver-related safety warning in filing to FDA

Article Bias: The article reports on Agios Pharmaceuticals' significant stock drop due to new safety warnings regarding a drug candidate, presenting the facts straightforwardly without apparent bias, but includes promotional language for subscription services at the end.

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Potential Outcomes: FDA approval or trial successes (30%), moderate rise above $36. Negative results or safety issues (25%) could push below $25, while flat trading is likely (45%) due to current market sentiment.

Trading Oracle: Engage in a call debit spread expiring June 2025 at $35 and $40 strikes. This capitalizes on potential trial success with controlled risk, leveraging the elevated implied volatility surface for a high reward:risk profile.

January 16, 2025