ILMN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Illumina's ongoing investment in single-cell technologies and the successful acquisition of Fluent BioSciences position it favorably for capturing market share and driving revenue growth in genomics.


Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges from the Grail spinoff, alongside disappointing earnings and high operational costs, may continue to suppress Illumina's market valuation and investor confidence.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Regulatory resolutions leading to stabilization (60%).

2. Continued competition eroding market share (30%).

3. New innovations significantly driving revenue (10%).


Trading Oracle: Given high implied volatility and a flat price outlook, consider a bearish credit spread by selling ILMN $130 calls while buying $140 calls. Target profit from theta decay in a stagnating market, with favorable risk-reward dynamics.


July 24, 2024


Illumina Forecast

ILMN      Illumina











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VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.47)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.16)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.27)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ILMN



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.16)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.27)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ILMN



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.47)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.16)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.27)





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