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ALK Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Expected demand from strategic expansions and capacity efficiency could improve profitability, supported by recent earnings beat and market sentiment shifts.

Bearish Case: Persistent operational and legal challenges may sustain volatility and hinder recovery, as implied by high short-term implied volatility and current social sentiment.

Potential Outcomes: Revenue growth from new routes (50% chance)
Operational disruptions continue (35%)
Legal issues escalate (15%)

May 20, 2025

Alaska Air Forecast

ALK Alaska Air

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ALK

WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (0.94)

RL Ralph Lauren (0.93)

RJF Raymond James Financial (0.92)

VST Vistra (0.9)

RCL Royal Caribbean (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ALK

VTRS Viatris (-0.02)

HXL Hexcel (0.02)

SG Sweetgreen (-0.02)

NIO NIO (-0.02)

DECK Deckers Outdoor (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ALK

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.72)

XP XP (-0.73)

COLD Americold Realty (-0.74)

ADM Archer Daniels Midland (-0.74)

TMDX Transmedics (-0.87)

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