ALK Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Strong summer air travel demand and high passenger volumes point to a potential revenue rebound. Expansion initiatives and customer satisfaction efforts are likely to boost ALK's performance.


Bearish Case: Ongoing legal issues, safety concerns, and underperformance relative to peers, compounded by increasing operational costs and volatility, suggest potential for further declines in ALK’s stock price.


Potential Outcomes: High probability of revenue boost from air travel recovery (60%), persistent legal and safety issues harming reputation (40%), moderate operational improvement affecting investor sentiment (50%).


Trading Oracle: Trade bearish credit spreads expiring in ~30 days. Sell 1 $40.0 strike call option (delta: 0.32) and buy 1 $42.5 strike call option (delta: 0.14). Market odds of profit 66%, Helium odds of profit 67%. High reward:risk, negative volatility skew. Edge based on current implied volatility analysis.


July 23, 2024


Alaska Air Forecast

ALK      Alaska Air











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ALK



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.15)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ALK



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.15)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ALK



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.15)





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