AM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Antero Midstream's (AM) historical return surface suggests a relatively stable and potentially upward trajectory, as indicated by its positive price momentum over multiple time frames. The implied volatility structure being higher for shorter-term options indicates market anticipation of near-term movements, potentially bullish.


Bearish Case: AM's flat recent price action combined with high implied volatility in lower strike prices suggests underlying market fears about its future. Backwardation in the options implied volatility surface also points to short-term concerns outweighing longer-term stability.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Dividend increase (60%) - Enhanced shareholder value.

2) Unchanged dividend (20%) - Neutral impact.

3) Recession-induced dividend cut (20%) - Negative pressure.

4) Increased LNG demand (30%) - Price boost.

5) Insider selling spike (10%) - Potential bearish trend.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a cautious bullish stance. Trade bullish debit spreads targeting medium-term expirations (September-December 2024). Leverage the expected dividend increase and relatively stable historical performance for a positive risk-reward balance. Given the term structure, capitalize on near-term higher volatility.


June 19, 2024


Antero Midstream Forecast

AM      Antero Midstream











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AM



WMB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMB  Williams Cos (0.94)


FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRO  Frontline (0.88)


MPLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPLX  MPLX (0.87)


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (0.87)


GLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLD  SPDR Gold Shares (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AM



RXRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RXRX  Recursion Pharmaceuticals (0.02)


BBIO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBIO  BridgeBio Pharma (0.02)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (0.02)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.03)


FL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FL  Foot Locker (0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AM



PLUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLUG  Plug Power (-0.84)


SEDG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEDG  Solaredge (-0.87)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.87)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (-0.88)


FOXF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOXF  Fox Factory (-0.89)





Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with AM


 Ask any question about AM!