XP Forecast


Bullish Case: XP’s potential recovery hinges on upcoming earnings reports and positive market sentiment. Historical returns suggest a stable growth trajectory if the tech sector rebounds, supported by high recent call option volumes, implying bullish investor sentiment.


Bearish Case: On the downside, looming regulatory changes and economic headwinds could dampen XP's performance. High implied volatility suggests considerable market uncertainty, increasing the likelihood of further price declines as seen in recent performance downtrends.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings-led growth (40% probability);

2. Regulatory shifts causing revenue decline (30%);

3. Continued market flatness (30%). Recent trends and volatilities indicate these probabilities reflect current market dynamics.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish stance with near-term debit spreads, focusing on the XP 20.00 C for expiration in August 2024; the high volatility enhances premium capture potential. Monitor sentiment shifts closely, adjusting positions as data emerges.


July 25, 2024


XP Forecast

XP      XP











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XP



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.61)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.32)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.32)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XP



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.32)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.32)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.61)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XP



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.61)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.32)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.32)





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