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XP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: XP's recent 44% gain in 90 days, coupled with strong call option interest, indicates bullish investor sentiment possibly fueled by tech sector recovery.



Bearish Case: Heavy implied volatility and historical price declines point to continued market skepticism. despite recent gains, economic uncertainty remains a key risk.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Growth continues, fueled by tech rebound (25%).

2. Market stagnation due to volatility remains (50%).

3. Decline from economic or regulatory pressures (25%).



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July 01, 2025


XP Forecast

XP        XP

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XP


STNE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNE  StoneCo (0.85)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (0.81)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.79)


ES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ES  Eversource Energy (0.76)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XP


GO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GO  Grocery Outlet (0.0)


FDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FDX  Fedex (0.0)


AVTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVTR  Avantor (-0.0)


BWXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BWXT  BWX (0.01)


GEOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEOS  Geospace (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XP


GAMB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GAMB  Gambling.com (-0.59)


LULU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LULU  Lululemon Athletica inc. (-0.6)


BKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BKR  Baker Hughes (-0.6)


CPRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPRT  Copart (-0.61)


TRGP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRGP  Targa Resources (-0.62)







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