Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: AMC could bounce back due to increasing ticket sales from upcoming major movie releases like 'Wicked,' potentially driving positive investor sentiment, despite lingering financial concerns. The high implied volatility suggests a possible short squeeze scenario.

Bearish Case: High debt levels combined with declining attendance in urban centers pose significant risks. Even with some blockbuster successes, investor skepticism may lead to further stock underperformance coupled with potential legal challenges.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful releases boost attendance (40%);

2. Continual financial struggles lead to stock declines (45%);

3. Stock dilution hampers recovery (15%).

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish long call spread with strike prices at $5-$6, targeting the November expiration to leverage high volatility. Alternatively, sell short-term OTM calls to capture premium if sentiment shifts. Focus on Q4 volatility spikes from anticipated box office hits for profitable entries.

November 20, 2024