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AMC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: New blockbusters like "Wicked" and "Captain America" could boost attendance, enticing retail investors. Social media hype fuels optimism for short-term spikes.



Bearish Case: High debt, declining theater attendance, and competition from streaming services pose substantial risks. Implied volatility suggests continued uncertainty ahead.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Financial struggles lead to 20% decline (45%).
  • Blockbusters aid partial recovery (30%).
  • Meme stock revival triggers short squeeze (25%).



Trading Oracle: Deploy a bearish short volatility strategy using a credit spread. Sell ATM calls, hedge with OTM calls expiring in 2 weeks. Aligns with high implied volatility and negative sentiment, seeking profit from volatility compression.


January 11, 2025


AMC Entertainment Forecast

AMC        AMC Entertainment

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