AMR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: AMR's steady price increase, mean-reverting behavior, and a positive AI forecast signal an upside. Implied volatility term structure is relatively stable, indicating manageable risk.


Bearish Case: High put volume and historical negative correlation with AI forecasts indicate downside risk. Current market uncertainty and elevated implied volatility could lead to a price decline.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Moderate upside due to bullish AI (30%);

2) Mean reversion with mild increase (40%);

3) Price decline from high put volume and negative AI divergence (30%).


Trading Oracle: Bullish put credit spread offers the best edge: Sell $270 strike puts, buy $250 strike puts. This aligns with AMR’s mean-reversion, low-risk, and Helium’s edge. Favor a ~29-day horizon for high probability-of-profit. High reward-to-risk ratio.


July 20, 2024


Alta Mesa Resources Forecast

AMR      Alta Mesa Resources











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AMR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.1)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.46)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AMR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.1)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.46)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AMR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.1)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.46)





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