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TBT Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: TBT bullish risk is 3% higher; potential for interest rate hikes could boost demand for inverse ETFs, supported by current social sentiment and positive historical returns.

Bearish Case: High put volume and flat recent price action suggest caution; a dovish Fed or unexpected rate cuts could lead to declines, alongside unchanged helium-forecasted neutrality.

Potential Outcomes: Price remains rangebound ($35-$37) with 60% probability, driven by stable volatility and sentiment.
Rally towards $39 if inflation pressures increase (20%).
Fall to $33 on unexpected rate cuts (20%).

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December 26, 2024

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TBT

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (1.0)

ETR Entergy (0.66)

APH Amphenol (0.64)

XOP SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.61)

UAN CVR Partners (0.61)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TBT

NBR Nabors Industries (-0.0)

SHAK Shake Shack (-0.0)

BBAR BBVA Argentina (0.0)

BEKE KE (0.01)

ABEV Ambev (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TBT

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (-0.7)

NOVA Sunnova Energy International (-0.71)

EPR EPR Properties (-0.71)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.74)

EXR Extra Space Storage (-0.74)

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