TBT Forecast


Bullish Case: TBT has -44.7% from its 10-year high, indicating potential upside. Higher yields and persistent inflation could drive TBT higher as it benefits from declining Treasury prices.


Bearish Case: TBT is -6.7% from 60 days ago with higher bearish risk (6%) over bullish. An unexpected rate cut or dovish Fed stance could see TBT prices decline with lower yields.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Rangebound between $30-$36 with 60% probability due to strong support/resistance levels.

2) Decline to $29 with 25% probability on dovish surprises.

3) Rally to $36 with 15% probability if inflation escalates.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish long volatility trade: Buy $35.5 calls and sell $36 calls expiring in ~14 days to capitalize on a potential rally. This debit spread plays on max pain theory and offers a balanced approach with positive edge.


July 07, 2024


PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea Forecast

TBT      PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TBT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.3)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.06)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.24)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TBT



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.06)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.24)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.3)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.31)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TBT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.3)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.06)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.24)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.31)





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