Bullish Case: TBT has risen 55% in two years with the Helium AI forecasting further 0.6% upside. Mean reversion suggests potential for price stabilization and upside.


Bearish Case: Decline in TBT price by 3.3% in past week juxtaposed with high implied volatility signals market anticipation of downward price pressure.


Potential Outcomes:

1) TBT stabilizes or grows modestly by 0.6% following AI forecast.

2) Further declines on continued mean reversion or macroeconomic shifts.


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March 28, 2024


PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea Forecast

TBT        PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)






Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with TBT



CNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CNX]  CNX Resources (0.82)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [RRC]  Range Resources (0.79)


UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UCO]  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (0.79)


USL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [USL]  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States 12 Month Oil (0.79)


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BNO]  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.78)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to TBT



CRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CRM]  Salesforce.Com (0.0)


ARDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ARDX]  Ardelyx (0.0)


FAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [FAS]  Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares (0.0)


JOBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [JOBY]  Joby Aviation (0.0)


SUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SUM]  Summit Materials (0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against TBT



SAFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SAFE]  Safehold (-0.93)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [EDV]  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (-0.96)


LTPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [LTPZ]  PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded (-0.96)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [VGLT]  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (-0.98)


TLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [TLH]  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond (-0.99)





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