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Bullish Case: With rising consumer demand for electric vehicles and potential growth in after-sales services, AutoNation is well-positioned for capital appreciation. Robust historical returns support a bullish sentiment, underpinned by favorable leadership changes and strategic acquisitions.

Bearish Case: AutoNation faces significant risk from recent operational disruptions and declining net income, exacerbated by high volatility in the market. The CDK outage has negatively impacted profits, creating uncertainty about future performance and investor confidence.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of a rebound in vehicle sales boosting earnings.

2. 30% probability of persistent operational disruptions leading to profit declines.

3. 20% chance of strategic acquisitions facilitating growth despite current hurdles. 10% chance of major regulatory changes impacting operations.

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September 17, 2024