AOA Forecast


Bullish Case: AOA showcases consistent upward historical returns within 2-year horizons. Recent gains and relatively stable market imply potential continued growth, bolstered by investor confidence.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility and macroeconomic concerns could trigger downturns. Rising bond yields may divert investments away from equities, pressuring AOA lower, reinforced by recent price flatness.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Modest Annual Gain (+5%) [60%]: Supported by historical trends.

2. Price Stagnation [Helium%]: Following recent flat trends.

3. Decline (-5% or more) [osteopathic.org%]: Driven by macroeconomic pressures.


Trading Oracle: Deploy Helium Long Volatility debit spreads. Enter long Aug 2024 76.00 C, short Aug 2024 77.00 C. This captures narrow implied volatility peaks, offering positive edge, high reward:risk, with a moderate bullish stance for imminent gains.


July 23, 2024


iShares Core Aggressive Allocation Forecast

AOA      iShares Core Aggressive Allocation











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AOA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AOA



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AOA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)





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