ARI Forecast


Bullish Case: The stable dividend payouts and a price-to-book ratio below 1 suggest undervaluation, presenting a compelling case for potential price recovery.


Bearish Case: The historical returns and ongoing downtrend, coupled with higher volatility, imply further price declines. Institutional selling adds to this bearish sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued price decline (50%): Ongoing downtrend, high volatility.

2) Stabilization (30%): Dividend attraction, undervaluation.

3) Modest recovery (20%): Sector recovery.


Trading Oracle: Trade bearish debit spreads targeting the $10 strike with expiries in 60-90 days. Focus on leveraging higher market uncertainty and implied volatility for optimal reward-to-risk. The bearish sentiment remains dominant with current market conditions.


July 10, 2024


Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Forecast

ARI      Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ARI



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.26)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.04)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.35)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ARI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.04)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.26)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.35)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.36)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ARI



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.26)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.04)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.35)





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