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ARWR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Arrowhead's partnerships and promising RNAi pipeline make it a strong contender for breakthroughs. Increased call trading volume suggests potential optimism. Recent updates on its ARO-C3 trials may lead to further advancements, boosting investor sentiment.



Bearish Case: Current ARWR price trends indicate sustained downward movement. High volatility and insider selling emphasize risks. Regulatory delays and competition in the RNAi space further challenge growth prospects, casting doubts on near-term recovery.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Clinical success boosts ARWR (50%).

2. Continued revenue declines lead to a drop (30%).

3. Regulatory hurdles impact progress (20%).



Trading Oracle: Exploit ARWR's high implied volatility with a Bearish Long Volatility strategy. Buy OOTM puts, offsetting risk by selling fewer further OOTM puts. Elevated volatility supports this move, aligning with chance of significant downside. Bearish Long Volatility Strategy


March 30, 2025


Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Forecast

ARWR        Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ARWR


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (0.0)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (-0.0)


VERA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VERA  Vera Therapeutics (0.0)


LHX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LHX  L3Harris (0.01)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ARWR


BYRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYRN  Byrna (-0.75)


SSRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSRM  SSR Mining (-0.75)


ARGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARGT  Global X Funds - Global X MSCI Argentina (-0.76)


NOK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOK  Nokia (-0.76)


BBAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBAR  BBVA Argentina (-0.77)







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