ASML Forecast


Bullish Case: ASML continues to benefit from strong AI-driven semiconductor demand and ongoing investments in capacity expansion. Historical performance indicates robust returns over multi-year periods.


Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions and US-China chip war restrictions could disrupt supply chains and sales, while high implied volatility suggests significant risk. Elevated market valuations also pose correction risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Moderate upside with AI demand (45%);

2) Sideways movement due to geopolitical tensions (35%);

3) Significant downside from market correction (20%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate bullish debit spreads expiring in ~120 days: Buy ASML $1060 calls, sell $1080 calls. Benefits from high implied volatility not fully realized. AI structural demand and recent price action indicate profitability.


July 13, 2024


New York Shares Forecast

ASML      New York Shares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ASML



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.86)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.32)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.63)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ASML



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.32)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.63)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.86)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ASML



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.86)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.32)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.63)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)





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