AVDL Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: FDA endorsement of LUMRYZ continues to boost investor confidence as data reveals better patient outcomes, significantly driving market optimism.


Bearish Case: Concerns regarding potential litigation results and high implied volatility reveal underlying market uncertainties, flagging a potentially volatile stock performance.


Potential Outcomes: FDA pediatric approval (35%), Antitrust litigation progress (40%), Market underperformance (20%), Additional endorsements by payers (5%). Market predictions adjusted for changing litigation context.


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June 27, 2024


Avadel Pharmaceuticals Forecast

AVDL      Avadel Pharmaceuticals











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Assets that tend to move strongly with AVDL



OMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OMC  Omnicom Group (0.88)


DFS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFS  Discover Financial Services (0.87)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (0.87)


AXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXP  American Express (0.86)


XLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLI  Industrial Select Sector SPDR (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AVDL



HRL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRL  Hormel Foods (0.0)


BBIO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBIO  BridgeBio Pharma (0.0)


PNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNW  Pinnacle West (0.01)


TRUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRUP  Trupanion (0.01)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AVDL



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.81)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.81)


CHTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHTR  Charter Communications (-0.83)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.88)





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