AVO Forecast


Bullish Case: The AVO market volatility shows elevated implied volatility levels, suggesting potential price recovery driven by higher call volume and favorable market conditions. The historical return surface indicates a notable likelihood of positive returns over shorter holding periods, which may suggest an upcoming bullish trend.


Bearish Case: Despite high implied volatility, AVO's consistent flat price action, coupled with ongoing downtrends and substantial negative historical returns, signifies ongoing bearish pressure. A potential economic downturn could exacerbate these trends, resulting in further price declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price Rally (35%): Triggered by market correction and high call volume.

2. Continued Decline (40%): Due to persistent bearish sentiment.

3. Flat Performance (25%): Given current high implied volatility but lack of directional momentum.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy the August $12.50 call while selling the $15.00 call to capitalize on potential recovery with limited risk. This strategy benefits from growing volatility while utilizing high call volume as a bullish indicator.


July 25, 2024


Mission Produce Forecast

AVO      Mission Produce











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AVO



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.73)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.48)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AVO



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.48)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.73)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AVO



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.73)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.48)





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