AVXL Forecast


Bullish Case: Positive clinical trial updates in Q2 2024 could lead to a strong uptrend. Helium’s slightly higher implied volatility forecast than the market suggests potential volatility, favoring bullish strategies.


Bearish Case: Ongoing legal issues, heightened implied volatility, and recent trial failures create a bearish outlook. Cash burn rates and additional lawsuits present continued downside risk.


Potential Outcomes: Key outcomes: 40% trial success; 35% further setbacks; 15% neutral; 10% lawsuit resolution. Predictions based on historical return data and current volatility structure.


Trading Oracle: Focus on long call debit spreads for Jan 2025 expirations to leverage Helium’s slightly higher implied volatility. Tight downside protection, with a bullish outlook for potential trial catalysts. High reward-risk ratio.


July 10, 2024


Anavex Life Sciences Forecast

AVXL      Anavex Life Sciences











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AVXL



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.91)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.72)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.55)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AVXL



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.55)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.72)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.72)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.91)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AVXL



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.91)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.72)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.55)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.72)





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