Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: AX may benefit from increasing implied volatility, suggesting market confidence in potential price appreciation. Upcoming financial disclosures or macroeconomic indicators could catalyze a bullish trend, supported by strong operational metrics.

Bearish Case: Concerns over insider trading and potential economic downturns could suppress prices. Elevated volatility suggests market apprehension, and upcoming earnings reports might not meet expectations, leading to downward pressure on AX's stock.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of price increase driven by solid earnings.

2. 30% chance of stagnation due to market volatility fears.

3. 30% chance of a drop resulting from negative news or insider trading revelations.

Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish debit spread strategy: buy 1 $80 call and sell 1 $85 call with a January 2025 expiration. This leverages current implied volatility spikes, targeting short-term upward trends with high reward:risk ratios. Maintain a close watch on market developments for adjustments.

November 19, 2024