Bullish Case: AXL's strategic partnerships and focus on electric vehicle components could drive growth, supported by recent earnings and increased call option activity indicating bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: Continued high debt levels, automotive industry volatility, and regulatory concerns present significant risks. Recent price declines and a flat price action history signal sustained bearish sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

• 40% chance of gradual price recovery with stable earnings.
• 30% likelihood of further decline due to industry volatility.
• 20% chance of flat performance amid market uncertainty.
• 10% potential for a sharp rally on unexpected positive news.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread by selling AXL July 2025 $6.00 calls and buying $7.00 calls. This strategy captures premium amid high short-term volatility, with moderate reward-to-risk and a focus on price stabilization or decline over the next six months.

February 11, 2025