Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Bullish outlook due to potential catalyst from recent increased call volume and favorable market sentiment surrounding electric vehicle components, indicating renewed institutional interest in AXL.

Bearish Case: Bearish case arises from persistent high volatility, market skepticism regarding AXL's financial stability, and ongoing industry challenges in the automotive sector, suggesting continued price pressure.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of minor rebound due to positive earnings surprise.

2. 30% likelihood of stabilization around $6.00 on strategic agreements.

3. 20% potential drop to $5.00 if market conditions worsen.

4. 10% risk of sharp rally to $8.00 on unexpected industry tailwinds.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying January 2025 $7.00 calls and selling $8.00 calls, capitalizing on upcoming potential price increases. Given the favorable risk-reward dynamics and institutional support, forecast for robust performance with limited downside risk. Maintain a close watch on earnings announcements.

November 17, 2024