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SPCE Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Potential revenue from Delta-class launches boosts prospects, supported by rising ticket sales. Recent price gains show rebound capacity.

Bearish Case: Continuous financial instability, high implied volatility, and operational delays increase bankruptcy odds. Price remains low with market uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes: Outcomes:

1. Delta success and revenue growth (25%),

2. Bankruptcy by 2026 (34%),

3. Stagnant growth amid competition (41%).

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February 21, 2025

Virgin Galactic Forecast

SPCE Virgin Galactic

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPCE

EA Electronic Arts (0.7)

EXR Extra Space Storage (0.69)

HPQ HP (0.68)

HIVE HIVE Blockchain (0.67)

COHR Coherent (0.65)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPCE

DB Deutsche (0.0)

ESTC Elastic (0.0)

TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care (-0.0)

WPC W. P. Carey (-0.0)

NBR Nabors Industries (0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPCE

LSCC Lattice Semiconductor (-0.6)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.61)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (-0.64)

LABD Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.68)

CORN Teucrium Corn (-0.75)

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