Bullish Case: Bullish case: SPCE could rally toward 4.0-4.8 in 60-90 days if Delta milestones land on schedule and SpaceX buzz persists; Helium's IV forecast shows near-term IV compression vs market, supporting a favorable risk-reward for long exposure; price action's mean reversion suggests a bounce from the 4.5 area, with SPY vol surfaces trending moderate.

Bearish Case: Bearish case: Disappointment on Delta milestones or SpaceX delays could push SPCE to the low 2s-3.0 range in 60-90 days; near-term IV spikes would complicate premium capture; dilution risk; while mean reversion remains plausible, the risk of a sustained downside remains.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Modest mean-reversion with IV compression: SPCE around 2.9-3.2 in 30-60d. Prob ~35%.
2. Downside drift to 2.0-2.4 within 90d due to negative catalysts; Prob ~25%.
3. Catalyst-driven rally to 4.0-4.8 within 60-90d; Prob ~15%.
4. Tail risk spike (>200% IV) briefly within 14d, then reversion; Prob ~15%.

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May 29, 2026