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CMC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Infrastructure projects bolster CMC, coupled with declining volatility—seen in the term structure—indicating potential stability and investor confidence.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and negative return likelihoods imply downward pressure, with mean reversion signaling possible price correction.

Potential Outcomes: Price Spike: 35% due to fiscal stimuli and infrastructure boost.
Price Decline: 50% as high P/B and volatility surface risk correction.
Stable Prices: 15% amid mixed signals and unchanged fundamentals.

March 18, 2025

Commercial Metals Forecast

CMC Commercial Metals

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CMC

FERG (0.81)

BC Brunswick (0.72)

DIN Dine Brands (0.7)

NOG Northern Oil and Gas (0.69)

UUUU Energy Fuels (0.68)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CMC

GTLB Gitlab (-0.0)

UBER Uber (-0.0)

WVE Wave Life Sciences (0.01)

NTNX Nutanix (-0.01)

MPWR Monolithic Power System (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CMC

SSRM SSR Mining (-0.4)

SATS EchoStar (-0.42)

NOK Nokia (-0.48)

DKL Delek Logistics Partners LP - Unit (-0.49)

HIMX Himax (-0.5)

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