AY Forecast


Bullish Case: AY benefits from ongoing infrastructure projects and new PPAs, with U.S. solar asset improvements and recent acquisitions bolstering long-term CAFD. Stable to increased dividends attract investors, amplifying positive momentum [Yahoo].


Bearish Case: High debt levels and volatility in renewable energy production due to unscheduled outages and unpredictable solar radiation pose risks. Underperformance in CAFD and net debts could further pressure stock price [Yahoo].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful CAFD growth from new assets and PPAs: 60%,

2. Extended operational inefficiencies: 40%.

3. Market reacts positively to earnings surprise: 55%,

4. Analysts revise estimates downward: 45%.


Trading Oracle: Sell Dec $22.5 Call @ 3.9 (IV 78.1) & Buy Dec $25 Call @ 0.55 (IV 16.6). AY price at $22.005. Credit spread exploits overestimated vol by Helium, targeting stable to slightly bullish price with high reward:risk. Duration: 6 months. Probability of profit > 60%.


June 28, 2024


Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure Forecast

AY      Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AY



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.26)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.16)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.14)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.09)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AY



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.14)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.16)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.26)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AY



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.26)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.16)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.14)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.09)





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