BBD Forecast


Bullish Case: BBD's recent earnings revisions and institutional interest suggest potential upward momentum. The high implied volatility indicates traders expect significant price movement, favoring bullish outcomes as market sentiment improves over the next few months.


Bearish Case: Continued bearish sentiment is highlighted by heavy put volumes, and analysts' downgrades could suppress BBD's stock price. High implied volatility may also signify market concerns, increasing the likelihood of negative short-term fluctuations.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Revenue beat forecasts: 20% chance.

2) Earnings miss estimates: 30% chance.

3) Significant market event increases volatility: 25% chance.

4) Continued mean-reverting trends: 25% chance. Outcome probabilities align with current market sentiments and historical performance data.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bear put spread (short $3 put, long $2 put) to capitalize on elevated volatility. Estimated 30% profit potential with minimal risk given current market fluctuations. This strategy aligns with volatility expectations and provides a high reward-to-risk profile.


July 25, 2024


Banco Bradesco Forecast

BBD      Banco Bradesco











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BBD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.73)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.69)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.61)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BBD



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.61)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.69)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.73)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BBD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.73)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.69)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.61)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.62)





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