BEP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: BEP combines a robust project pipeline, a significant Microsoft power-purchase agreement, and attractive dividends, suggesting strong long-term potential. With renewable energy demand soaring and acquisition synergies, BEP is poised for growth.


Bearish Case: BEP faces regulatory scrutiny, higher financing costs, and recent stock volatility. Mean-reverting tendencies and unresolved acquisitions may limit short-term upside. Implied volatility and option market data point to potential near-term headwinds.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Regulatory approval boosts stock: 40%.

2) Acquisition synergy drives growth: 30%.

3) Financing costs weigh down returns: 20%.

4) Delays in acquisition close: 10%. Predictions are finely tuned per historical data and current market observations.


Trading Oracle: Opt for a bearish credit spread expiring in ~49 days. Sell the $25.0 call and buy the $35.0 call. Helium Trades shows a 69% profit probability and positive edge. This aligns with BEP's mean-reverting behavior, recent vol dynamics, and overall risk-reward. High alpha and potential returns with limited downside exposure.


June 30, 2024


Brookfield Renewable Forecast

BEP      Brookfield Renewable











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BEP



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.2)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.14)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BEP



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.14)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.2)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.27)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BEP



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.2)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.14)





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