BLKB Forecast


Bullish Case: Blackbaud's recent partnership with REPAY enhances operational efficiencies and signals recovery. Improved data security measures may restore client trust, evidenced by rising adoption within nonprofits, bolstering future revenues.


Bearish Case: Ongoing reputational damage from hefty legal settlements coupled with insider selling raises red flags. Persistent regulatory scrutiny may curtail growth prospects, leading to further customer attrition.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 55% chance of slow recovery due to effective security upgrades and customer retention initiatives.

2. 30% chance of stagnation as reputational issues hinder new client acquisition.

3. 15% chance of accelerated losses if regulatory issues persist.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread: buy a $80 call, sell a $90 call, targeting December expiration. High implied volatility supports capturing upward price movement, with manageable risk. This strategy aligns with potential recovery amidst elevated volatility.


July 24, 2024


Blackbaud Forecast

BLKB      Blackbaud











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LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.4)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BLKB



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.1)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.4)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.44)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BLKB



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.44)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.1)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.4)





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