BLV Forecast


Bullish Case: Given the recent strategic investor interest and the ongoing tender offer, BLV may see upward movement. Institutional ownership increases [defenseworld.net] further back this bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: BLV has underperformed over multiple time frames (-20.7% over 10 years) and faces increased put volume today. High likelihood zones of negative returns from historical surface add bearish weight.


Potential Outcomes: Institutional buying increases (50%)
+5%
Economic downturn (30%)
-10%
Fed rate hike (60%)
-8%
Successful tender offer (40%)
+3%
Bond market volatility (55%)
-6%


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June 27, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Bond Forecast

BLV      Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Bond











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BLV



TLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TLH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond (0.97)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.96)


VCLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VCLT  Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (0.94)


DRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRN  Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (0.93)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BLV



CRTO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRTO  Criteo (-0.0)


ROOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROOT  Root (0.0)


WES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WES  Western Midstream (0.0)


CBOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBOE  Cboe Global Markets (-0.0)


NTNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTNX  Nutanix (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BLV



SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.73)


MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (-0.75)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.81)


TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBF  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (-0.99)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.99)





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