JPM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: JPMorgan's robust financials and strong investment banking performance offer a bullish outlook. The historical returns indicate probabilistic upside. Call options volume indicates bullish sentiment (69% more volume).


Bearish Case: Potential legal issues and slowing economic conditions pose risks. Helium's higher implied volatility suggests heightened market concerns over future uncertain events, countered by put options volume spikes


Potential Outcomes: JPM likely to see regulatory scrutiny impacting stock (30%). Acquisition enhances market share (50%). Broad macroeconomic trends and debt provisioning (20%). Predictions based on historical and current data.


Trading Oracle: Sell a 25-day put credit spread $190/$175. Elevated implied volatility and bullish risk bias make put credit spreads attractive, aiming to capture probable stability or growth. Holding for a 25-day duration leverages short-term positioning and defined risk.


July 16, 2024


JPMorgan Chase Forecast

JPM      JPMorgan Chase











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Assets that tend to move strongly with JPM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to JPM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JPM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)





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