BSM Forecast


Bullish Case: BSM could see significant upward momentum due to potential recovery in the energy sector, boosted by improved earnings forecasts and strategic investments. Analysts expect stabilization in distribution rates, with insider purchases indicating confidence in long-term value.


Bearish Case: Potential distribution cuts and ongoing investor skepticism surrounding energy market volatility may lead to further price declines. Upcoming earnings reports could reveal weaker-than-expected performance, exacerbating bearish sentiment among traders and investors.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of a strong earnings report leading to a 20% price rebound;

2. 40% chance of sustained flat performance if market uncertainties persist;

3. 30% chance of a significant drop (up to 35%) due to adverse distribution news.


Trading Oracle: Consider initiating credit spreads given the high implied volatility spikes, especially in short-term puts. A bearish outlook remains prudent due to flat pricing trends and high downside risks. Focus on selling short puts (e.g., Aug 15.00 P or Oct 15.00 P) for optimal risk/reward.


July 25, 2024


Black Stone Minerals Forecast

BSM      Black Stone Minerals











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BSM



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BSM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.51)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.52)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.72)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BSM



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.72)





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