BTF Forecast


Bullish Case: BTF has seen a strong upward move over the past two years with a historical return surface favoring such moves. High call option trading volume and bullish risk outlook (86% more than bearish) further indicate a bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: BTF has shown recent short-term weakness, down over the past 60 days and past month. High implied volatility for distant out-of-the-money puts suggests market expectation for potential significant downside.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Market remains flat: 40% chance. Historical data shows tendencies to consolidate after strong moves.

2. Moderate uptrend: 35% chance. Support from bullish sentiment, AI forecast, and past bullish runs.

3. Sharp decline: 25% chance. Driven by recent short-term weakness and high out-of-the-money put volatility.


Trading Oracle: Bullish stance with debit spreads (Helium Long Volatility) targeting near-term expiry (August/September 2024) 18.00-20.00 call spreads. AI implies higher volatility, aligning with potential upward movement backed by high bullish sentiment and call volumes. High risk-reward profile with positive edge.


July 12, 2024


Valkyrie ETF Trust II - Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy Forecast

BTF      Valkyrie ETF Trust II - Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BTF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.37)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.59)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BTF



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.37)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.59)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BTF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.37)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.59)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)





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