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BTI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: BTI's steady move into reduced-risk products and high dividend yield, coupled with mean-reverting price action, suggests potential stock stability and growth.

Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and declining traditional sales overshadow innovation. Elevated implied volatility hints at uncertainty, risking price dips.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful reduced-risk product growth (50%).

2. Decline in combustible sales (30%).

3. Regulatory challenges intensify (20%).

June 01, 2025

British American Tobacco Forecast

BTI British American Tobacco

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BTI

PPL PPL (0.88)

VRSN Verisign (0.87)

ORI Old Republic International (0.86)

SAP Sap SE (0.84)

TJX TJX Companies (0.82)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BTI

VSCO Victoria's Secret (0.0)

RGEN Repligen (-0.01)

RF Regions Financial (0.01)

HCA HCA Healthcare (0.01)

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BTI

KSS Kohl's (-0.87)

STNG Scorpio Tankers (-0.87)

HP Helmerich & Payne (-0.87)

ODP ODP (-0.87)

CLF Cleveland-Cliffs (-0.88)

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