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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: BTI's transition to reduced-risk products is showing promise, evidenced by decreasing implied volatility in the near term. This trend could enhance investor confidence and drive stock price recovery above $38 in the next quarter.



Bearish Case: Despite potential gains in reduced-risk markets, continued declines in traditional cigarette sales and regulatory pressures may offset growth, making BTI vulnerable to price drops below $34, particularly if earnings disappoint next quarter.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth in reduced-risk products (40% probability);

2. Regulatory challenges stymieing potential gains (30% probability);

3. Significant drop in cigarette sales leading to earnings misses (20% probability);

4. Unexpected market volatility affecting stock (10% probability).



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November 20, 2024


British American Tobacco Forecast

BTI        British American Tobacco

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