BXMT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: BXMT's 126% dividend coverage and diversified, 95% performing portfolio support a steady outlook. CEO insights and robust loan segments offer resilience against rate fluctuations.




Bearish Case: High exposure to struggling office properties, increased credit risks, and significant loan loss reserves suggest potential dividend cuts and share price pressure, especially with persistent high inflation.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 70% chance of dividend maintenance due to diversification
  • 20% chance of further office sector impact leading to cuts
  • 10% chance rising rates enhance income significantly




Trading Oracle: Utilizing flat implied volatility and mean-reverting price action, employ a Bullish Short Volatility strategy by selling near-the-money puts, maximizing premiums from current market dissonance.



March 30, 2025


Blackstone Mortgage Forecast

BXMT        Blackstone Mortgage











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BXMT



MP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MP  MP Materials (0.58)


AMPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMPL  Amplitude (0.56)


TPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPR  Tapestry (0.54)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.53)


DRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRI  Darden Restaurants (0.51)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BXMT



MTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTZ  Mastec (0.0)


COHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COHR  Coherent (-0.0)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (0.0)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (-0.0)


BHP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHP  BHP Group Limited (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BXMT



AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.43)


MYGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MYGN  Myriad Genetics (-0.45)


ASC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASC  Ardmore Shipping (-0.49)


MANU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MANU  Manchester United Plc. (-0.53)


FSLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLR  First Solar (-0.56)









Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with BXMT


 Ask any question about BXMT!