CAH Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Cardinal Health exhibits strong fundamentals with consistent revenue and EPS growth, expanding segments, and shareholder-friendly policies like dividends and share buybacks.


Bearish Case: Recent overvaluation concerns, heightened options implied volatility, and low profit margins relative to the sector suggest potential downside risks and stagnation.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Sustained growth (50% chance): backed by robust segment expansion and consistent revenue (+54.9B YoY).

2. Price stagnation/decline (50% chance): high valuation, increased volatility, and potential mean reversion.


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish short volatility spread: sell 2 near-term $95.0 put options, buy 3 $92.5 put options, targeting ~16-day expiry. This capitalizes on flat term structure and positive edge, offering high reward:risk and a high probability-of-profit.


July 04, 2024


Cardinal Health Forecast

CAH      Cardinal Health











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