CAPL Forecast


Bullish Case: CAPL has demonstrated a 4.7% increase YoY with strong Q4 results previously. The historical return surface shows a moderate likelihood of positive returns over the next two years.


Bearish Case: CAPL is trading at -12% compared to 90 days ago and market implied volatility suggests uncertainty. Rising interest rates could strain financials, posing potential downsides.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Stagnant price: 40% chance due to recent flat trends.

2. Modest increase: 30% based on historical return surface and strong earnings.

3. Decline: 30% driven by economic pressures and rising interest rates.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish credit spread (e.g., 20.00/22.50 bull put spread) targeting a short 1-3 month duration. This approach leverages mean reversion and moderate implied volatility for a high reward:risk profile amid potential price affirmation.


July 11, 2024


CrossAmerica Forecast

CAPL      CrossAmerica











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CAPL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.04)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.32)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CAPL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.04)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.32)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CAPL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.04)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.32)





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