CARG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Improved sentiment from bullish options volumes and call interests. Institutional buying and increased earnings estimate revisions signal growth potential. Call options trading 55% more volume than put options.


Bearish Case: Insider selling and flat implied volatility structure suggest market skepticism. Limited short-term upside coupled with insider selling signals possible near-term weakness.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Core business growth, reversal of mean-reversion (60%),

2. Macroeconomic downturn impacts demand (20%),

3. Expansion into new verticals drives upside (20%).


Trading Oracle: Adopt bullish debit spreads. Buy near-term $26 strike calls, sell $28 strike calls. Time outlook: 60-90 days. Aligns with upcoming earnings and increased call option volume. Strategy leverages mean reversion and bullish sentiment, capitalizing on potential upside while managing risk.


June 23, 2024


CarGurus Forecast

CARG      CarGurus











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CARG



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.7)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CARG



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.7)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.78)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CARG



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.7)





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