CDNA Forecast


Bullish Case: CareDx's AlloSure and AlloView show strong clinical validation, potentially increasing adoption and revenue—solidified by raised FY2024 guidance.


Bearish Case: Persistent legal challenges, high implied volatility, and regulatory hurdles could continue to suppress CDNA's stock performance and increase downside risk.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% AlloSure gains Medicare coverage, boosting revenue.

2. 30% negative legal outcomes worsen financial strain.

3. 20% market-neutral earnings stabilize stock price.


Trading Oracle: Initiate bullish debit spreads on August 2024 22.50 Calls, betting on medium-term uptick. Expect volatility to contract as positive news rolls out. Favor medium holds due to favorable insights, balancing risk effectively. High reward-to-risk, positive edge confirmed.


July 19, 2024


Caredx Forecast

CDNA      Caredx











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CDNA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.69)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.27)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.43)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CDNA



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.27)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.43)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.69)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CDNA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.69)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.27)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.43)





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