Bullish Case: Carlyle's successful divestiture of assets such as Saverglass[Yahoo] and a Long Island City site[therealdeal.com], as well as the increased holdings by Assetmark Inc.[beststocks.com] imply confidence in CG’s value.


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Bearish Case: Risks include market uncertainties as emphasized by Carlyle's average implied volatility at the 0th percentile[Helium] and continual decrease in trade volume[Helium]. CG's potential sale of Jagex[Reuters] might also imply lack of confidence in the gaming sector.


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Takeaway: Carlyle shows resilience by successfully divesting assets while external market uncertainties and reduced trading volumes pose challenges. The outcome of Jagex’s potential sale/listing will be a key focus[Reuters].


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Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful sale or listing of Jagex, bringing notable returns (60% chance)[Reuters].

2. Deteriorating market conditions hindering the sale of Jagex (25% chance)[Reuters].

3. Further divestitures translating into more capital for future investments (15% chance)[Yahoo][therealdeal.com]. These estimates are based on Carlyle's recent successful divestitures and current market conditions.


September 12, 2023



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Assets that tend to move strongly with CG



RSP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [RSP]  Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight (0.84)


VB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [VB]  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Small Cap (0.82)


CC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CC]  Chemours (0.79)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [GES]  Guess (0.77)


AER Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [AER]  Aercap (0.77)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to CG



MRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MRO]  Marathon Oil (0.0)


JACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [JACK]  Jack In The Box (0.0)


DLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DLO]  DLocal (-0.0)


SYY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SYY]  Sysco (0.0)


CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CWH]  Camping World (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against CG



REW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [REW]  ProShares UltraShort Technology (-0.39)


PSQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PSQ]  ProShares Short QQQ (-0.4)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UUP]  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.42)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [VIXY]  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.44)


SARK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SARK]  Tuttle Capital Short Innovation (-0.56)


CG News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.

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