CG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Carlyle's extensive strategic investments signal strong potential for growth, including a deal for Baxter's Vantive valued over $4 billion, aiding in diversification and asset management strengthening.


Bearish Case: Carlyle's low trading volume and flat price action indicate limited investor enthusiasm, coupled with underperformance in key investments like Beautycounter, posing downside risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful integration of Vantive drives growth (40%).

2. Market volatility limits returns (30%).

3. New strategic investments fail to meet expectations (20%).

4. Navigated majors acquisitions successfully (10%).


Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish long volatility debit spread inclined towards strategic investments with higher expected returns. Buy the $45 strike call and sell the $50 strike call expiring in ~189 days to capture upside potential aligned with upcoming strategic acquisitions, balanced with risk mitigation. This offers high reward:risk and a favorable probability of profit.


July 13, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CG



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.76)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.54)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CG



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.54)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.76)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CG



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.76)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.54)


CG News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with CG


 Ask any question about CG!