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CLMT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: CLMT's options market indicates increasing implied volatility, suggesting bullish sentiment. Positive historical returns coupled with significant revenue growth indicate strong bullish potential for price recovery above current levels.



Bearish Case: While recent implied volatility remains low, suggesting complacency, historical trends show that consistent EPS misses could lead to further price declines. Market skepticism could amplify negative outcomes.



Potential Outcomes:
  • CLMT trades above $25.00 (35% probability) due to revenue growth and increasing market interest.
  • Price flatlines around $22.54 (40% probability) due to EPS misses.
  • Drop below $20.00 (25% probability) triggered by external adverse market conditions or operational challenges.



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish strategy via a debit call spread by buying 1x $24 call and selling 1x $26 call, capitalizing on expected price increase with a 70% probability of profit and potential 25% return. Utilize short volatility strategies to define risk effectively.


November 30, 2024


Calumet Specialty Products Forecast

CLMT        Calumet Specialty Products

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CLMT


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (0.76)


SBUX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBUX  Starbucks (0.7)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.69)


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (0.67)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (0.66)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CLMT


FLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLNG  Flex Lng (0.0)


NXST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NXST  Nexstar Media (0.01)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (-0.01)


ARR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARR  ARMOUR Residential REIT (0.02)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CLMT


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (-0.66)


HRTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRTX  Heron Therapeutics (-0.67)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.69)


SMCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMCI  Super Micro Computer (-0.73)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.73)







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