LNG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Global LNG demand is set to grow by 2.5% in 2024 [Arab News], driven largely by Asia. Cheniere's strategic positioning and expansion activities solidify long-term growth potential [ecns.cn]. Historical returns show positive likelihood over time [https://heliumtrades.com/static/market_graphs/return_surfaces/LNG.png].


Bearish Case: Regulatory uncertainties (e.g., Trump's influence [Common Dreams]), geopolitical tensions [Tass], and potential market saturation or macroeconomic shifts [Helium] could impede Cheniere's growth. LNG term structure shows flat anticipated volatility [https://heliumtrades.com/static/market_graphs/term_structures/LNG.png].


Potential Outcomes: LNG demand continues growing globally (70%), volatile prices impact earnings unpredictably (50%), geopolitical instability drives unexpected price spikes (15%), regulatory changes create disruptions (25%).


Trading Oracle: Sell ATM put credit spreads expiring in ~30 days. Sell $180 put, buy $170 put. Market odds of profit 77%, Helium model odds 75%. Bullish on volatility stabilization evident in term structure and implied volatility surface . High reward:risk with 14% annual return projection.


July 18, 2024


Cheniere Energy Forecast

LNG      Cheniere Energy











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PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (0.59)


EQNR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQNR  Equinor ASA - (0.57)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LNG



BXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BXP  Boston Properties (0.0)


JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNUG  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.0)


PDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PDD  Pinduoduo (-0.0)


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (0.0)


BDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BDX  Becton, Dickinson And Company (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LNG



AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.68)


HUBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUBS  HubSpot (-0.71)


YUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YUM  Yum Brands (-0.71)


WYNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WYNN  Wynn Resorts (-0.71)


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (-0.73)





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