CLOV Forecast


Bullish Case: Clover Health's pivot to a SaaS and shared-savings model by introducing the Counterpart Assistant, a move predicted to attract significant medicare advantage providers, is coupled with insider confidence and improving financials [seekingalpha.com].


Bearish Case: Despite improving financials, Clover Health remains unprofitable, faces high volatility, and options volume indicates bearish sentiment. Historical returns suggest high likelihood of negative returns over holding periods [seekingalpha.com][Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Partnership with top Medicare provider: 40% chance.

2. Continued financial improvement: 30% chance.

3. Increased market volatility impacting returns: 20% chance.

4. Regulatory/capital market challenges: 10% chance.


Trading Oracle: Bearish outlook. Short-term time frame (less than 3 months). Use credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility). Focus on relatively high IV put options like the 01/17/2025 0.50 P, exploiting current high IV (109.4) and bearish sentiment for high probability profit with positive edge.


June 30, 2024


Clover Health Investments Forecast

CLOV      Clover Health Investments











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ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.85)


BCRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCRX  Biocryst Pharmaceuticals (0.84)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (0.82)


ACLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACLS  Axcelis (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CLOV



UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.0)


RY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RY  Royal Bank Of Canada (-0.0)


ING Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ING  ING Groep (0.0)


ADI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADI  Analog Devices (0.0)


LKQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LKQ  LKQ (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CLOV



TRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRIP  TripAdvisor (-0.67)


MGNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGNX  Macrogenics (-0.68)


CAH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAH  Cardinal Health (-0.7)


LFMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LFMD  LifeMD (-0.7)


CNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNC  Centene (-0.73)





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