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CME Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Positive sentiment in cryptocurrency markets after election outcomes, combined with CME's strong trading volume, indicates growth potential. Historical return patterns suggest a favorable long-term outlook for CME prices as volatility stabilizes.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility suggests existing market uncertainty, and any sudden regulatory changes could trigger significant investor pullbacks, potentially undermining recent bullish momentum.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 60%: Continued growth in cryptocurrency trading following favorable political scenarios.


2. 25%: Regulatory scrutiny impacts trading volumes negatively.


3. 15%: Market volatility leads to sudden sell-off, driven by fear.



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish debit spread strategy: buy the $220 call and sell the $230 call. This leverages the favorable market conditions with high potential returns (24%) and maintain a manageable risk level. Monitor implied volatility discrepancies to maximize profit opportunities. Adjust as market sentiment shifts post-election.


November 21, 2024


CME Forecast

CME        CME

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BNS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNS  Bank Of Nova Scotia (0.66)


ACM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACM  AECOM (0.66)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CME


ARKG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKG  ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (-0.0)


ULTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ULTA  Ulta Beauty (0.0)


ZIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZIM  Zim Integrated Shipping Services (0.0)


EQT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQT  EQT (0.0)


EPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPI  WisdomTree India Earnings (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CME


TRMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRMD  TORM (-0.63)


VRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNT  Verint Systems (-0.64)


MEOH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MEOH  Methanex (-0.64)


ACLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACLS  Axcelis (-0.7)


MRNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRNA  Moderna (-0.71)







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