Bullish Case: CME continues growing cryptocurrency derivatives offerings and benefiting from market volatility (articles 16, 43, 46).


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Bearish Case: Competition from other exchanges could erode CME's market dominance (articles 53, 56).


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Takeaway: While CME has shown adaptability with new crypto offerings, competition remains a concern. Macroeconomic volatility and cryptocurrency adoption trends will significantly Influence CME's growth prospects. To summarize my previous predictions on May 3, 2023 (articles 49, 56, 63), I expected CME to benefit from demand for hedging amid volatility, but noted competitive risks. Since then, CME has expanded in crypto derivatives (articles 43-46, 65) while facing ongoing competition (articles 52-53, 59), confirming those broad theses. My probability estimates for crypto adoption and regulatory risks also seem reasonable based on recent developments. Overall, I believe my predictions have been directionally accurate, while properly noting uncertainties. This analysis integrates my prior views with updated information on CME's financial performance, competitive landscape, and market trends.


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Potential Outcomes:

1. CME's cryptocurrency products gain traction, boosting revenue growth (70% chance).

2. Competitive pressures weigh on CME's market share and fees (30% chance).

3. Macroeconomic uncertainty increases demand for CME's hedging products (60% chance).

4. Regulation and scrutiny of crypto derivatives affects CME's offerings (40% chance).


September 27, 2023



Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with CME



CBOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CBOE]  Cboe Global Markets (0.81)


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [WFRD]  Weatherford International plc - New (0.8)


XLC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [XLC]  Active Trust - Communication Services Select Sector SPDR (0.8)


MGK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MGK]  Vanguard Mega Cap Growth (0.8)


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [OLED]  Universal Display (0.79)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to CME



MGA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MGA]  Magna International (0.0)


BLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BLK]  Blackrock (0.0)


APD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [APD]  Air Products & Chemicals (-0.01)


HL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [HL]  Hecla Mining (-0.01)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MHK]  Mohawk Industries (0.02)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against CME



CUTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CUTR]  Cutera (-0.73)


SARK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SARK]  Tuttle Capital Short Innovation (-0.73)


ACRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ACRS]  Aclaris Therapeutics (-0.74)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DG]  Dollar General (-0.76)


PSQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PSQ]  ProShares Short QQQ (-0.78)


CME News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.

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