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CMP Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: Implied volatility suggests potential upward momentum, reflecting market optimism. Historical return surfaces indicate a reasonable chance of positive annual returns, particularly if lithium project advances materialize.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility at low strike prices signals market fear and potential downside. Historical data shows a significant probability of negative returns, particularly during downturns related to operational setbacks.

Potential Outcomes:

1) +20% upside on lithium project news: 25%;

2) Price stagnation around $13: 40%;

3) -15% decline due to legal issues: 35%.

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November 12, 2024

Compass Minerals International Forecast

CMP Compass Minerals International

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CMP

CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (0.94)

ALGT Allegiant Travel (0.9)

DDD 3D Systems (0.88)

U Unity Software (0.87)

LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. (0.87)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CMP

EPR EPR Properties (0.01)

QRVO Qorvo (-0.02)

IMNM Immunome (0.03)

CTLP Cantaloupe (0.03)

DNN Denison Mines (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CMP

NTAP Netapp (-0.79)

BLBD Blue Bird (-0.8)

PG Procter & Gamble (-0.81)

IMPP Imperial Petroleum (-0.82)

KO Coca-Cola (-0.83)

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Market Forecasts

Bullish / Bearish

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Trading Strategies

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Short Volatility

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