COGT Forecast


Bullish Case: Bezuclastinib’s promising efficacy from SUMMIT Part 2, overstated market overreaction, strong long-term prospects, analyst buy ratings, and current low valuation suggest significant upside potential.


Bearish Case: Options data showing high implied volatility, uncertain trial outcomes, previous weak price actions, and the potential for negative clinical trial results pose significant downside risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful SUMMIT trial: 40% probability, substantial price increase.

2. Trial setbacks: 25% probability, possible price decline.

3. Continuation of current trend: 35% probability, implying continued volatility without a clear trend.


Trading Oracle: Given the high implied volatility and positive sentiment, play debit spreads (long volatility). Bullish outlook. Use the 11/15/2024 $12.50 calls currently underpriced versus Helium's model value. Targeting potential upside amidst data releases for potent asymmetrical gains. Target dates: August-November 2024.


June 30, 2024


Cogent Biosciences Forecast

COGT      Cogent Biosciences











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COGT



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.3)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.29)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.24)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.29)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COGT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.24)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.29)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.29)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.3)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COGT



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.3)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.29)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.24)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.29)





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