Bullish Case: Criteo's growth in retail media and strategic partnerships, particularly with Microsoft, may significantly boost revenues. The market's apprehension toward transitions could create unique buying opportunities amidst low implied volatility.

Bearish Case: Ongoing insider selling, privacy regulation impacts, and a sluggish transition to new technologies raise significant doubts about Criteo's growth trajectory. Market skepticism suggests heightened risk for shareholders ahead of upcoming earnings reports.

Potential Outcomes:

• Continued retail media growth: 65% chance
• Negative earnings surprise due to privacy headwinds: 55% chance
• Insider selling impacts market perception: 40% chance
• Partnerships with major retailers enhance revenues: 50% chance
• Regulatory challenges hinder ad revenues: 45% chance

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy by buying the $42.50 call and selling the $45.00 call with expiration in January 2025. This strategy leverages low implied volatility and anticipated revenue boosts from retail media, allowing for a high reward-to-risk ratio.

December 14, 2024