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Bullish Case: Nutrien (NTR) may benefit from normalizing demand and improved margins, driven by anticipated record crop yields and strong potash shipments. Given its resilient business model, emerging agricultural trends could fuel stock recovery.

Bearish Case: Persisting high input costs, regulatory pressures, and low commodity prices could exacerbate margin compression for Nutrien. Economic uncertainties and ongoing market volatility may negatively impact future profitability forecasts.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased demand due to enhanced crop yields (60%);

2. Regulatory headwinds causing operational disruptions (30%);

3. Economic downturn leading to reduced spending on fertilizers (10%). Varying market sentiments may adjust these probabilities.

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August 22, 2024











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