CSB Forecast


Bullish Case: CSB's current implied volatility is relatively low for out-of-the-money (OTM) options; this volatility combined with historical mean-reversion suggests upside potential. A strong historical return signal further supports this outlook.


Bearish Case: Recent volatility increases coupled with lower relative likelihood of long-term gains indicate bearish sentiment. The historical correlation between Helium's predictions and actual price supports the bearish scenario with potential downside risk.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Mean reversion rally (50%) - supported by historical returns and mean reversion.

2. Continued decline (30%) - shown by increased volatility.

3. Sideways movement (20%) - given the neutral Helium AI forecast.


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July 19, 2024


Victory Portfolios II - VictoryShares US Small Cap High Div Volatility Wtd Forecast

CSB      Victory Portfolios II - VictoryShares US Small Cap High Div Volatility Wtd











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CSB



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.23)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.26)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.38)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CSB



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.23)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.26)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.38)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CSB



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.23)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.26)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.38)





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