CSTE Forecast


Bullish Case: An improved gross margin and optimistic EBITDA outlook suggest operational efficiency. Historical price return surfaces show potential for significant positive returns in the <= 1-year holding window, though with lower probability (red color indicator) [tipranks.com, Yahoo].


Bearish Case: CSTE shows substantial long-term decline (-90.1% in 10 years). The HeliumTrades AI forecast is neutral, historical returns are predominantly negative, and recent price action remains flat [Helium, Helium, Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Sustained profitability and strategic restructuring lead to growth (20% chance).

2. Market pressures and economic downturn continue to hinder performance (50%).

3. Volatility due to market sentiment (30%), influenced by high beta [Yahoo].


Trading Oracle: Bearish debit spreads on $5 puts for 07/19 or 08/16 with high IV and favorable bid-ask spreads are optimal. These credit spreads capitalize on recent trends and softening price (gamble on falls). Estimated alpha and positive edge are high.


June 30, 2024


Caesarstone Forecast

CSTE      Caesarstone











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CSTE



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.59)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


AOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AOSL  Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (0.33)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.48)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CSTE



AOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AOSL  Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (0.33)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.48)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.59)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CSTE



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.59)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


AOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AOSL  Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (0.33)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.48)





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